Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, political struggles are conducted: hopeful statements are delivered from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is devoted on restraining particular approaches. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from Russian territory, a ability enabled by current data. From observation points, military aircraft that had been scrambled to intercept incoming cruise missiles roared overhead – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: defensive missiles targeted at a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably delivered by partner states. Every launch shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly transforms into sober acceptance: possibly the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and another blackout.
Ongoing Risks
Following this, a heavy machine gun engaged a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its objective.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: seven people killed, devastation and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a reliance that regional partners are clearly incapable to fill in the immediate future.
Failed Diplomacy
The detailed framework from American leadership sparked intense emotion, controversy and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.
Every new initiative from US leadership adheres to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, undoubtedly, persist.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership operates on a assumption understood by international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government assumes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to relinquish the land that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from assuming that the situation will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the near future.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Moscow is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing civilians and areas but averting a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not move to domestic problems. And although their task will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to kill the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, mainly require sustained allied backing.
